Correlation vs Causality

I ain't gonna write a thesis on that matter. There should be enough articles off the web. Check out http://stats.org/faq_vs.htm for an article on that matter or http://256.com/gray/thoughts/2004/20040511.html for another. Check out http://cr.yp.to/postpropter.html for a list of potentially wrong "causal relationship" conclusions.

Anyway, to the subject. We came back late at around 9:00pm. Well, 'late' in terms of "probability to get a parking lot on the first floor of our multi storey carpark. In general, at this time on a Sunday night, we'd probably get a free lot on the seco nd or third storey. Optimitic as I am (well, the driver might have something else to say about that, especially after driving for hours. And I am not "yet" the driver), I suggested to just drive one round on the first storey.

As we were turning on the left (tis kind of a one-way drive), we noticed a car leaving on the extreme right and we also noticed a car coming in after us. My wife suddenly turned into Alan Prost (somehow I like that guy's name) and smurf (our van!) burst forward. We were kind of musing what to do if that car behind us were to drive the other way round (kind of against traffic). To our relief, it seems the car did no such thing. In fact, the car went up on the next storey probably thinking that whatever empty lot left will be taken by us. In any case, there were more than 1 empty lots left.

Ok, where am I going with this? Well, there were interestingly 3 empty slots (2 were just vacated). We were kind of esctatic cos it's always cool to get a lot on the first storey. We kind of exagerate our esctasy but well, that's our daily game! My wife half jokingly mentioned that Manchester United would win against Liverpool by 3-0. She has the habit of make such "predictions" just prior to the match. I remember she "predicted" a 4-0 against dunno what team. You know what? No prize for the right guess. SHE WAS RIGHT.

Manchester United demolised Liverpool 3-0. Well, it could have been more. Liverpool were hard done by a sent off but the red-carded dude has only himself to blame. You don't go and talk back to the referee.

Anyway, back again.. back again... THREE-NIL. That was fantastic and obviously my wife was jokingly remonstrating me for not betting!!!!

So, here's the theory:
a. The number of empty parking lots on the first floor causes something to happen such that Manchester United would win by such a margin.

And to play scientists, we'd add that the constraints are:
a. If smurf did a burst
b. If there is a car behind
c. If the driver believes that the car will try to steal an empty slot
d. If the driver noticed that a car just left the parking lot
e. If we reach the car park at 9pm
f. If Manchester United were playing at 9:30pm
g. ceteris paribus (keep other things constant)

No wonder I ain't a scientist and I ain't an economist (would you believe I specialised in Applied economics!!)

Anyway. I'm happy Man U won. Hopefully Arsenal and Chesea draw (and it is still draw at half time). Can't sleep cos I slept a bit in the afternoon. But must still try.